September 2019 Poll

Decided voter support: Vancouver-Granville

A plurality of voters in the Vancouver-Granville federal electoral district would support independent candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould over Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed (37% vs 27%). Conservative Zach Segal would receive 15% of the vote, while just 6% would support NDP’s Yvonne Hanson. Twelve percent (12%) would support Green Party candidate, Louse Boutin. The poll found 17% of eligible voters are undecided.

Wilson-Raybould’s support as an independent (at 37%) represents a four percentage-point increase since April, when the pollster found her support stood at 33%. In 2015, Wilson-Raybould, running as a Liberal, won her seat with 44% support.

As noted in April, similar proportions of men and women support the candidate (36% and 39% respectively).

In a significant change since April, Wilson-Raybould’s support is now relatively stable across age groups, registering at:

  • 38% among 18-to-34 year-olds (up from 17% in April),
  • 32% among 35-to-54 year-olds (compared to 37% in April), and
  • 42% among voters 55 and older (unchanged).

Support for Wilson-Raybould among City of Vancouver residents

Vancouver residents who reside outside of the Vancouver-Granville riding were asked if they believe Vancouver-Granville voters should “support independent Jody Wilson-Raybould in the upcoming federal election.”

Among those who are decided on the issue, a majority (69%) feel Vancouver-Granville residents should support Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould. Currently, 41% of Vancouver residents reserve judgement.

Voter mobility

As we found in April, Wilson-Raybould’s decision to run as an independent is disrupting major party support in the Vancouver Granville electoral district. Between 30% and 41% of 2015 Conservative, Liberal, and NDP supporters would support Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould.

2015 Jody Wilson-Raybould Liberal supporters

2015 Wilson-Raybould Liberal supporters in Vancouver-Granville would today divide their vote about equally between a now-Independent Wilson-Raybould and Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed. Fewer than 10% of 2015 Wilson-Raybould Liberal supporters would now support the Conservative, Green, and NDP candidates.

Voter intention among 2015 Wilson-Raybould (Liberal) supporters:

  • Independent Wilson-Raybould: 41% up from 35% in April;
  • Liberal: 38%, unchanged since April;
  • Green: 8%
  • Conservative: 7%, statistically unchanged since April (5%); and
  • NDP: 4%, down significantly since April (17%).
2015 Conservative supporters

Most 2015 Conservative supporters would continue to support the Conservative candidate. But a sizeable minority would move their vote to Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould. Much smaller minorities would support the Liberal, Green, and NDP candidates.

Voter intention among 2015 Conservative supporters:

  • Conservative: 58%, down significantly since April (72%);
  • Independent Wilson-Raybould: 30%, relatively unchanged since April (26%);
  • Liberal: 8%, up since April (2%);
  • NDP: 1% currently. The party did not register in April; and
  • Green: 1%
2015 NDP supporters

Vancouver-Granville 2015 NDP supporters are now significantly less likely to support the riding’s NDP candidate. A majority would now divide their support between Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould and the Green candidate.

Voter intention among 2015 NDP supporters:

  • Independent Wilson-Raybould: 34%, statistically unchanged since April (28%);
  • NDP: 17%, down significantly since April (58%); and
  • Liberal: 9% currently and in April;
  • Conservative does not register currently or in April.

Decided voter support: City of Vancouver

Across the City of Vancouver, 35% of decided voters tell pollsters they would support the Liberals if the election were held today. NDP, Conservative and Green candidates are statistically tied for second place, receiving 19%, 18%, and 17% support respectively. 

Liberal support has grown from 25% to 35% among City of Vancouver residents at the expense of the Conservatives and NDP.

 

To see the full tabulations of results, click here. 

For more information, contact: 

Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence

+1 604 783 4165 / barb at justasonMI.com

Research Notes

These are the findings of two Justason Market Intelligence (JMI) surveys of citizens 18 years and older who reside in the Vancouver Granville federal electoral district (n=440) and the City of Vancouver (n=500). The surveys, conducted by Justason Market Intelligence and sponsored by the Jody Wilson-Raybould campaign, were completed in English August 28-30 and September 3, 2019.

Vancouver Granville survey: The hybrid methodology combined online surveys and automated random digit dialling (RDD) of landline and mobile phones. Up to three attempts were made to reach potentially qualified individuals. The final weighted sample was adjusted to match the demographic distributions of the Vancouver-Granville electoral district according to the 2016 Canadian census. The final sample of 440 carries a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The margin of error for the riding’s 361 decided voters is +/-5.1.

City of Vancouver survey: The hybrid methodology combined online surveys and automated random digit dialling (RDD) of landline phone numbers. Up to three attempts were made to reach potentially qualified individuals by telephone. The final weighted sample was adjusted to match the demographic and regional distributions of the City of Vancouver according to the 2016 Canadian census. The sample of 500 residents in this poll carries a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The margin of error of the 413 decided voters is +/-4.8.

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